La crisis alcanzó su punto de mayor contracción a mediados de 2009. Desde entonces se produjo una doble reacción: la percepción general fue que la situación empeoraba, y las autoridades insistieron en que mejoraba gracias a su intervención. Ambas nociones eran engañosas: la economía mejora desde hace dos años, y el intervencionismo público no sólo no contribuyó a esa mejoría sino que la frenó y puede haber acabado abortándola.
Las tasas anuales de crecimiento de nuestro PIB fueron del -3,7 % y -0,1 % en 2009 y 2010 respectivamente. En cuanto a 2011 y 2012, las previsiones de la Comisión Europea conocidas ayer estiman el crecimiento en el 0,7 % cada año. El Instituto Flores de Lemus las estimó en el 0,7 % este año y el 1 % el año próximo. En cuanto a las tasas trimestrales, han sido positivas en los dos primeros trimestres de 2011, pero negativas en el tercero. Para la CE el registro también será negativo en este cuarto trimestre que estamos atravesando. Otros organismos no lo tienen claro y, como siempre, las predicciones de la economía han de ser tomadas con cautela.
De todas maneras, está claro que la percepción según la cual nuestra economía seguía hacia abajo no era correcta, porque de hecho remontó, aunque lentamente, hasta este verano.
Las características de esa débil remontada tienen que ver con la segunda reacción equivocada: el crecimiento de la economía se explica por el ajuste del sector privado, mientras que el público hizo lo contrario de lo que debía, al aumentar impuestos, gastos y deuda, y no abrir los mercados. Esto retrasó el final del ajuste, aumentando los costes sobre las empresas y obstaculizando la reasignación de capital y trabajo hacia nuevas inversiones y empleos.
Para colmo de males, la intervención llevó rápidamente a las finanzas públicas hacia situaciones de riesgo, porque a la subida de los gastos se le unió el derrumbe de la recaudación por el freno en la actividad. Y en eso estamos ahora, con los problemas de insostenibilidad que plantean los héroes que son en realidad villanos.
“Ningún poder en la tierra podrá arrancarte lo que has vivido.” Viktor Frankl
The U.S. Already Has a Safe Network of Pipelines That Are An Integral Part of Our Energy System. Mark Perry
The map above (click to enlarge) shows the existing, extensive network of energy pipelines in the U.S. with the following code:green for oil, red for gas, and blue for products such as gasoline, propane and ethylene.
In a temporary victory for environmentalists, the Obama administration has delayed its decision on whether to approve the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline until after the 2012 election, which further delays the creation of 20,000 jobs for this "shovel-ready" project. Environmentalists claim that the Keystone XL pipeline's route across the Midwest "would endanger sensitive lands and drinking water supplies."
With all of the environmentalism NIMBYism/alarmism about the proposed Keystone XL oil pipeline, it might be a good time to point out that: a) the United States already has a huge network of existing pipelines for oil, natural gas and gasoline illustrated in the map above, b) pipelines have been used successfully and safely in the U.S. for more than 100 years, and c) pipelines are an integral part of our domestic energy system. In other words, we live safely with energy pipelines every day and the Keystone XL pipeline would simply become one new part of an existing and extensive pipeline network that makes a significant contribution to America's dependable and affordable energy.
Occupiers are blaming the wrong people. Margaret Wente
Laurel O’Gorman is one of the faces of Occupy Toronto. She believes the capitalist system has robbed her of her future. At 28, she’s studying for a master’s degree in sociology at Laurentian University in Sudbury. She’s also the single mother of two children. “I’m here because I don’t know what kind of job I could possibly find that would allow me to pay rent, take care of these two children and pay back $600 each month in loans,” she said.
Ms. O’Gorman is in a fix. But I can’t help wondering whether she, and not the greedy Wall Street bankers, is the author of her own misfortune. Just what kind of jobs did she imagine are on offer for freshly minted sociology graduates? Did she bother to ask? Did it occur to her that it might be a good idea to figure out how to support her children before she had them?
She’s typical in her bitter disappointment. Here’s Boston resident Sarvenaz Asasy, 33, who has a master’s degree in international human rights, along with $60,000 in student loans. She dreamed of doing work to help the poor get food and education. But now she can’t find a job in her field. She blames the government. “They’re cutting all the grants, and they’re bailing out the banks. I don’t get it.”
Then there’s John, who’s pursuing a degree in environmental law. He wants to work at a non-profit. After he graduated from university, he struggled to find work. “I had to go a full year between college and law school without a job. I lived at home with my parents to make ends meet.” He thinks a law degree will help, but these days, I’m not so sure.
These people make up the Occupier generation. They aspire to join the virtueocracy – the class of people who expect to find self-fulfillment (and a comfortable living) in non-profit or government work, by saving the planet, rescuing the poor and regulating the rest of us. They are what the social critic Christopher Lasch called the “new class” of "therapeutic cops in the new bureaucracy."
The trouble is, this social model no longer works. As blogger Kenneth Anderson writes, “The machine by which universities train young people to become minor regulators and then delivered them into white-collar positions on the basis of credentials in history, political science, literature, ethnic and women’s studies – with or without the benefit of law school – has broken down. The supply is uninterrupted, but the demand has dried up.”
It’s not the greedy Wall Street bankers who destroyed these people’s hopes. It’s the virtueocracy itself. It’s the people who constructed a benefit-heavy entitlement system whose costs can no longer be sustained. It’s the politicians and union leaders who made reckless pension promises that are now bankrupting cities and states. It’s the socially progressive policy-makers in the U.S. who declared that everyone, even those with no visible means of support, should be able to own a home with no money down, courtesy of their government. In Canada, it’s the social progressives who assure us we can keep on consuming all the health care we want, even as the costs squeeze out other public goods.
The Occupiers are right when they say our system of wealth redistribution is broken. But they’re wrong about what broke it. The richest 1 per cent are not exactly starving out the working poor. (In the U.S., half all income sent to Washington is redistributed to the elderly, sick and disabled, or to those who serve them, and nearly half the country lives in a household that’s getting some sort of government benefit.) The problem is, our system redistributes the wealth from young to old, and from middle-class workers in the private sector to inefficient and expensive unions in the public sector.
Among the biggest beneficiaries of this redistribution is the higher-education industry. In Canada, we subsidize it directly. In the U.S., it’s subsidized by a vast system of student loans, which have allowed colleges to jack up tuition to sky-high levels. U.S. student debt has hit the trillion-dollar mark. Both systems crank out too many sociologists and too few mechanical engineers. These days, even law-school graduates are having trouble finding work. That’s because the supply has increased far faster than the demand.
The voices of Occupy Wall Street, argues Mr. Anderson and others, are the voices of the downwardly mobile who are acutely aware of their threatened social status and need someone to blame. These are people who weren’t interested in just any white-collar work. They wanted to do transformational, world-saving work – which would presumably be underwritten by taxing the rich. They now face the worst job market in a generation. But their predicament is at least in part of their own making. And none of the solutions they propose will address their problem.
Ms. O’Gorman, the graduate student in sociology, didn’t bring her kids to the Occupy demonstration in Toronto because she was worried about security. Still, she hoped they would absorb the message. “I’m trying to teach them equity and critical thinking from a young age,” she said. If she’d only applied a bit more critical thinking to herself, she might be able to pay the rent.
Editor's note: Clarifications: John, who’s pursuing a degree in environmental law, is not part of the Occupy movement.
The following sentence is a paraphrase, not a direct quote: They are what the social critic Christopher Lasch called the “new class” of “therapeutic cops in the new bureaucracy.”
Source: Mark Perry.
Ms. O’Gorman is in a fix. But I can’t help wondering whether she, and not the greedy Wall Street bankers, is the author of her own misfortune. Just what kind of jobs did she imagine are on offer for freshly minted sociology graduates? Did she bother to ask? Did it occur to her that it might be a good idea to figure out how to support her children before she had them?
She’s typical in her bitter disappointment. Here’s Boston resident Sarvenaz Asasy, 33, who has a master’s degree in international human rights, along with $60,000 in student loans. She dreamed of doing work to help the poor get food and education. But now she can’t find a job in her field. She blames the government. “They’re cutting all the grants, and they’re bailing out the banks. I don’t get it.”
Then there’s John, who’s pursuing a degree in environmental law. He wants to work at a non-profit. After he graduated from university, he struggled to find work. “I had to go a full year between college and law school without a job. I lived at home with my parents to make ends meet.” He thinks a law degree will help, but these days, I’m not so sure.
These people make up the Occupier generation. They aspire to join the virtueocracy – the class of people who expect to find self-fulfillment (and a comfortable living) in non-profit or government work, by saving the planet, rescuing the poor and regulating the rest of us. They are what the social critic Christopher Lasch called the “new class” of "therapeutic cops in the new bureaucracy."
The trouble is, this social model no longer works. As blogger Kenneth Anderson writes, “The machine by which universities train young people to become minor regulators and then delivered them into white-collar positions on the basis of credentials in history, political science, literature, ethnic and women’s studies – with or without the benefit of law school – has broken down. The supply is uninterrupted, but the demand has dried up.”
It’s not the greedy Wall Street bankers who destroyed these people’s hopes. It’s the virtueocracy itself. It’s the people who constructed a benefit-heavy entitlement system whose costs can no longer be sustained. It’s the politicians and union leaders who made reckless pension promises that are now bankrupting cities and states. It’s the socially progressive policy-makers in the U.S. who declared that everyone, even those with no visible means of support, should be able to own a home with no money down, courtesy of their government. In Canada, it’s the social progressives who assure us we can keep on consuming all the health care we want, even as the costs squeeze out other public goods.
The Occupiers are right when they say our system of wealth redistribution is broken. But they’re wrong about what broke it. The richest 1 per cent are not exactly starving out the working poor. (In the U.S., half all income sent to Washington is redistributed to the elderly, sick and disabled, or to those who serve them, and nearly half the country lives in a household that’s getting some sort of government benefit.) The problem is, our system redistributes the wealth from young to old, and from middle-class workers in the private sector to inefficient and expensive unions in the public sector.
Among the biggest beneficiaries of this redistribution is the higher-education industry. In Canada, we subsidize it directly. In the U.S., it’s subsidized by a vast system of student loans, which have allowed colleges to jack up tuition to sky-high levels. U.S. student debt has hit the trillion-dollar mark. Both systems crank out too many sociologists and too few mechanical engineers. These days, even law-school graduates are having trouble finding work. That’s because the supply has increased far faster than the demand.
The voices of Occupy Wall Street, argues Mr. Anderson and others, are the voices of the downwardly mobile who are acutely aware of their threatened social status and need someone to blame. These are people who weren’t interested in just any white-collar work. They wanted to do transformational, world-saving work – which would presumably be underwritten by taxing the rich. They now face the worst job market in a generation. But their predicament is at least in part of their own making. And none of the solutions they propose will address their problem.
Ms. O’Gorman, the graduate student in sociology, didn’t bring her kids to the Occupy demonstration in Toronto because she was worried about security. Still, she hoped they would absorb the message. “I’m trying to teach them equity and critical thinking from a young age,” she said. If she’d only applied a bit more critical thinking to herself, she might be able to pay the rent.
Editor's note: Clarifications: John, who’s pursuing a degree in environmental law, is not part of the Occupy movement.
The following sentence is a paraphrase, not a direct quote: They are what the social critic Christopher Lasch called the “new class” of “therapeutic cops in the new bureaucracy.”
Source: Mark Perry.
¿El banquero del mundo? Sobre el peso financiero internacional de China. Pablo Bustelo
Tema: China se ha convertido en un actor financiero de primer orden y, si se cumplen determinadas condiciones, podría contribuir a garantizar la estabilidad de las finanzas en regiones alejadas de su entorno geográfico.
Resumen: Este análisis señala, en primer lugar, que hace apenas cinco años China estaba poco integrada, desde el punto de vista financiero, en la economía global, con la excepción de sus ya cuantiosas reservas en divisas. En segundo término, documenta cómo, desde entonces, su peso en ese terreno ha progresado de manera espectacular, convirtiendo al país en un actor financiero de primer orden. En tercer lugar, se enumeran algunas de las condiciones que deberían cumplirse para que China pueda contribuir de manera importante a la estabilidad financiera en la UE.
Análisis: Hasta hace pocos años, los análisis sobre China tendían, en su gran mayoría, a reconocer que se había convertido ciertamente en una gran potencia industrial y comercial, pero con un peso bastante escaso en el sistema financiero global (con la importante excepción de sus ya enormes reservas en divisas). Por ejemplo, en el último tercio de los años 2000 los especialistas destacaban que China había conseguido, gracias a una tasa anual media de crecimiento del PIB que había rondado el 10% desde 1980, triplicar su peso en la economía mundial entre 1990 y 2005, hasta el 5%, mientras que, en cambio, la parte de la UE y de EEUU se había mantenido más o menos estable. También se señalaba que la contribución de China al crecimiento de la economía global era entonces relativamente pequeña: menos del 8% en 2000-2005 frente al 40% de la UE y al 20% de EEUU.
[...]
Conclusiones: A lo largo del último lustro, China se ha convertido en una potencia financiera de primer orden. Sus reservas en divisas han crecido de manera espectacular, hasta alcanzar 3,2 billones de dólares en septiembre de 2011. Se estima que 1,1 billones están colocados en títulos de deuda del Tesoro de EEUU y que China tendría, al menos en teoría, interés en diversificar parte de esas tenencias hacia otras monedas, entre ellas, el euro. Además, la inversión directa en el extranjero alcanzó casi 70.000 millones de dólares en 2010. Aunque la inversión en cartera es todavía relativamente pequeña (al menos con los datos hasta 2010), es de destacar la creciente actividad internacional de los fondos soberanos chinos, como CIC y SAFE. En suma, China tiene una posición inversora internacional que presentaba en 2010 un saldo neto positivo de casi 1,8 billones de dólares (el 30% del PIB), sólo superado por el de Japón. Siendo el segundo país acreedor neto del mundo, está en posición inmejorable para contribuir a operaciones de financiación internacional, pese a su todavía baja renta por habitante.
Dadas las características del último plan de rescate europeo, que bien puede ser temporal, al que los propios europeos no aportan muchos fondos (ya que la ampliación del EFSF se hace mediante apalancamiento) y que descansa en la curiosa idea de que una zona rica, como la UE, necesita dinero de países de ingreso más bajo, no cabe esperar mucho entusiasmo por parte de China.
Con todo, por la cuenta que le trae, especialmente para su imagen de país responsable y para la vitalidad de su principal mercado exterior, es muy posible que China acabe contribuyendo, incluso con una cantidad importante, al fondo europeo de rescate. Sin embargo, Occidente tiene que darse cuenta que el auge de las economías emergentes, especialmente cuando se recurre a ellas en situaciones de crisis, hace imprescindible un mayor peso político de los grandes países en desarrollo en el escenario internacional. No se trata sólo de generosidad o de agradecimiento sino, sobre todo, de inteligencia.
Leer artículo completo en Revista de Prensa.
Las armas y las letras. Andrés Trapiello. 2010
Andrés Trapiello ha escrito una obra maestra. Lo incluyo entre mis libros.
Es
la tercera edición de un libro que repasa la vida de los hombres de letras
durante la Guerra Civil
Española (1936-1939). No he
leído ediciones anteriores, por lo tanto para mí todo ha sido novedad.
Lo
mejor del libro es que invita a seguir leyendo más. Novelas, poemas, crónicas y
relatos de lo sucedido durante la guerra. Yo he apuntado, entre otros: Madrid
sufre (Diarios de guerra en el Madrid republicano) de Carlos Morla
Lynch, La revolución española vista por una republicana de Clara
Campoamor, Guerra
en España de Juan Ramón
Jiménez, Un
año con Queipo de Llano (memorias de un nacionalista) de Antonio Bahamonde y Casi
unas memorias de Dionisio Ridruejo, pero
hay muchos más incluidos en el libro.
Fácil de leer y muy
entretenido. Muestra como la gente tiene distintas formas de encarar las
situaciones. Incluso personas con un nivel cultural alto son capaces de las
actitudes más abyectas. En el libro hay de todo, gente con un
comportamiento impecable de principio de fin, gente que se equivoca y rectifica
a tiempo, gente que se transforma para sobrevivir, gente que defiende sus ideas
hasta morir, etcétera. Me ha hecho reflexionar sobre qué haría yo en esas circunstancias,
o mejor dicho, qué pienso que haría.
Es un libro de
cabecera, para consultar y como trampolín hacia otras lecturas e
investigaciones.
Por
ejemplo, el libro recupera las palabras de
Edgar Neville sobre Federico García Lorca (p. 569):
No, no es cierto, unos cuantos miserables cuyo nivel intelectual era lo bastante elevado para saber el valor real de su presa y su total inocencia e inocuidad política, le dieron el gusto de atravesar con un plomo aquella cabeza llena de ideas, de belleza y de bondad.El anterior es sólo un ejemplo ya que el libro está plagado de descubrimientos, datos, hechos, libros, personas, reflexiones, etcétera. Un excelente análisis de la Guerra Civil.
Ojalá Trapiello siga
investigando y saque una nueva edición. Mi recomendación es que sea en digital,
con más fotografías, vídeos, textos, entrevistas y otros.
Según
me ha comentado el autor, en la nueva edición
de bolsillo (Austral) se ha añadido a José Castillejo,
"tanto como Chaves o Campoamor".
Las
armas y las letras. Literatura y guerra civil (1936-1939), nueva edición
revisada y aumentada, Barcelona, Editorial Destino, 2010.
Críticas:
Encuentro
digital con Andrés Trapiello en El Mundo (06.05.2010)
Entrevista
a Andrés Trapiello en Letras Libres (10.05.2010)
Entrevista
a Andrés Trapiello en Público (08.05.2010)
Entrevista
a Andrés Trapiello en esradio (03.07.2010)
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