Enlaces 09.01.2014

Canal de Panamá, en El País.

Estar en racha: el caso de Rudy Fernández, por Manuel Conthe.
Sucumben a la "falacia de las rachas de acierto" (hot-hand fallacy) no sólo los aficionados al deporte, sino también quienes apuestan en casinos y otros juegos de azar. La falacia puede explicar también parcialmente -a mi juicio- las oscilaciones de la aversión al riesgo a lo largo del ciclo económico, como expuse en "El vaivén de los temores".

How to Fight Global Poverty, by Stephen Davies.
Have you heard the news? The number of people living in abject poverty—defined as living on less than $1.25 per day—has been halved since 1990. How did that happen? Prof. Stephen Davies explains that extreme poverty has been on the decline in part because two of the world’s most populous countries, China and India, have embarked on a path of economic liberalization and development over the past two to three decades. As more countries have embraced free trade and market-friendly policies, we have seen encouraging news of poverty reductions and greater access to clean drinking water. If such policies continue, Prof. Davies says, it’s not out of the question for extreme poverty to be eradicated in the foreseeable future. These gains are likely to be lost, however, if we make poor economic decisions that take us back toward protectionism and economic controls. With good economic policies and free markets, we can help many of the poorest people in the world.

The Aid Debate Is Over. The failure of Jeffrey Sachs' Millennium Villages, by William Easterly.
Sachs does deserve some positive recognition: He was and is a very gifted and hard-working advocate for those who have not yet benefited from the considerable progress that has happened as a result of development. But his idea that aid could rapidly bring the end of poverty was wrong. It's time to move on.

Christians, Muslims Clash in Central African Republic, by The Atlantic.