Planeamiento hidrológico II: La opción de los trasvases.

por Eva Pareja.


En la publicación anterior se comentó que la solución aportada por la mayoría de Planes Hidrológicos Nacionales, para abastecer de agua a las regiones deficitarias de este recurso, se basaba en los trasvases entre ríos.  Hoy vamos a adentrarnos en esta opción.

Este artículo no está orientado a hablar de las virtudes que se esperaban del trasvase del Ebro, ni a describir las infraestructuras que se quedaron en el aire con la derogación del PHN-2001.  Se trata de conocer el presente, de cómo llega el agua de un trasvase en funcionamiento, el Tajo-Segura, a un agricultor con los terrenos en una cuenca deficitaria, la del Segura.


¿CÓMO SE RIEGA EN LA CUENCA DEL SEGURA?

La Cuenca del Segura, probablemente por ser la más deficitaria de España, es la mejor regulada de Europa.  Es tradicional su carencia de agua en algunos tramos de la misma, y a lo largo de los siglos ha condicionado la vida de los agricultores murcianos y alicantinos por su irregularidad. A períodos de grandes inundaciones, seguían otros de grave sequía, repitiéndose de forma cíclica constantemente.

En 1968 se inician las obras del Trasvase Tajo-Segura, que permiten ampliar las zonas de riego agrícola y garantizar la permanencia de las zonas tradicionales. En 1971 el estado promulgó una ley conocida como de Aprovechamiento conjunto del Tajo-Segura en la que se establecía un caudal trasvasable de 600 Hm3 en una primera fase y de 1.000 Hm3 en una segunda.

La presa Azud de Ojós (Murcia) fue construida en 1975 para derivar las aguas del Trasvase Tajo-Segura, y a partir de la misma, una mínima parte del caudal continúa por su cauce natural: el resto se derivó hacia la izquierda hasta el Canal de Crevillente, y desde éste, al embalse de La Pedrera (Alicante), y hacia la derecha el agua se conduce para regar los campos de Lorca y Almería.  El último tramo que riega el propio Segura es parte de la Comarca de la Vega Baja (la “cuña” sur de la provincia de Alicante), por donde atraviesa este río hasta su desembocadura. 

Imágenes nº1 y nº2: Trazado trasvase y Presa de Azud de Ojós.
Fuentes: www.lacerca.com y www.regmurcia.com, respectivamente.


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Why we don't believe in science



galileo.jpg

Last week, Gallup announced the results of their latest survey on Americans and evolution. The numbers were a stark blow to high-school science teachers everywhere: forty-six per cent of adults said they believed that “God created humans in their present form within the last 10,000 years.” Only fifteen per cent agreed with the statement that humans had evolved without the guidance of a divine power.

What’s most remarkable about these numbers is their stability: these percentages have remained virtually unchanged since Gallup began asking the question, thirty years ago. In 1982, forty-four per cent of Americans held strictly creationist views, a statistically insignificant difference from 2012. Furthermore, the percentage of Americans that believe in biological evolution has only increased by four percentage points over the last twenty years.

Such poll data raises questions: Why are some scientific ideas hard to believe in? What makes the human mind so resistant to certain kinds of facts, even when these facts are buttressed by vast amounts of evidence?

new study in Cognition, led by Andrew Shtulman at Occidental College, helps explain the stubbornness of our ignorance. As Shtulman notes, people are not blank slates, eager to assimilate the latest experiments into their world view. Rather, we come equipped with all sorts of naïve intuitions about the world, many of which are untrue. For instance, people naturally believe that heat is a kind of substance, and that the sun revolves around the earth. And then there’s the irony of evolution: our views about our own development don’t seem to be evolving.

This means that science education is not simply a matter of learning new theories. Rather, it also requires that students unlearn their instincts, shedding false beliefs the way a snake sheds its old skin.

To document the tension between new scientific concepts and our pre-scientific hunches, Shtulman invented a simple test. He asked a hundred and fifty college undergraduates who had taken multiple college-level science and math classes to read several hundred scientific statements. The students were asked to assess the truth of these statements as quickly as possible.

To make things interesting, Shtulman gave the students statements that were both intuitively and factually true (“The moon revolves around the Earth”) and statements whose scientific truth contradicts our intuitions (“The Earth revolves around the sun”).

As expected, it took students much longer to assess the veracity of true scientific statements that cut against our instincts. In every scientific category, from evolution to astronomy to thermodynamics, students paused before agreeing that the earth revolves around the sun, or that pressure produces heat, or that air is composed of matter. Although we know these things are true, we have to push back against our instincts, which leads to a measurable delay.

What’s surprising about these results is that even after we internalize a scientific concept—the vast majority of adults now acknowledge the Copernican truth that the earth is not the center of the universe—that primal belief lingers in the mind. We never fully unlearn our mistaken intuitions about the world. We just learn to ignore them.

Shtulman and colleagues summarize their findings:
When students learn scientific theories that conflict with earlier, naïve theories, what happens to the earlier theories? Our findings suggest that naïve theories are suppressed by scientific theories but not supplanted by them.
While this new paper provides a compelling explanation for why Americans are so resistant to particular scientific concepts—the theory of evolution, for instance, contradicts both our naïve intuitions and our religious beliefs—it also builds upon previous research documenting the learning process inside the head. Until we understand why some people believe in science we will never understand why most people don’t.

In a 2003 study, Kevin Dunbar, a psychologist at the University of Maryland, showed undergraduates a few short videos of two different-sized balls falling. The first clip showed the two balls falling at the same rate. The second clip showed the larger ball falling at a faster rate. The footage was a reconstruction of the famous (and probably apocryphal) experiment performed by Galileo, in which he dropped cannonballs of different sizes from the Tower of Pisa. Galileo’s metal balls all landed at the exact same time—a refutation of Aristotle, who claimed that heavier objects fell faster.

While the students were watching the footage, Dunbar asked them to select the more accurate representation of gravity. Not surprisingly, undergraduates without a physics background disagreed with Galileo. They found the two balls falling at the same rate to be deeply unrealistic. (Intuitively, we’re all Aristotelians.) Furthermore, when Dunbar monitored the subjects in an fMRI machine, he found that showing non-physics majors the correct video triggered a particular pattern of brain activation: there was a squirt of blood to the anterior cingulate cortex, a collar of tissue located in the center of the brain. The A.C.C. is typically associated with the perception of errors and contradictions—neuroscientists often refer to it as part of the “Oh shit!” circuit—so it makes sense that it would be turned on when we watch a video of something that seems wrong, even if it’s right.

This data isn’t shocking; we already know that most undergrads lack a basic understanding of science. But Dunbar also conducted the experiment with physics majors. As expected, their education enabled them to identify the error; they knew Galileo’s version was correct.

But it turned out that something interesting was happening inside their brains that allowed them to hold this belief. When they saw the scientifically correct video, blood flow increased to a part of the brain called the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, or D.L.P.F.C. The D.L.P.F.C. is located just behind the forehead and is one of the last brain areas to develop in young adults. It plays a crucial role in suppressing so-called unwanted representations, getting rid of those thoughts that aren’t helpful or useful. If you don’t want to think about the ice cream in the freezer, or need to focus on some tedious task, your D.L.P.F.C. is probably hard at work.

According to Dunbar, the reason the physics majors had to recruit the D.L.P.F.C. is because they were busy suppressing their intuitions, resisting the allure of Aristotle’s error. It would be so much more convenient if the laws of physics lined up with our naïve beliefs—or if evolution was wrong and living things didn’t evolve through random mutation. But reality is not a mirror; science is full of awkward facts. And this is why believing in the right version of things takes work.

Of course, that extra mental labor isn’t always pleasant. (There’s a reason they call it “cognitive dissonance.”) It took a few hundred years for the Copernican revolution to go mainstream. At the present rate, the Darwinian revolution, at least in America, will take just as long.

Illustration courtesy of Hulton Archive/Getty Images.

Tsunamis y terremotos. Hablamos con Elisa Buforn.

Audio en Ciencia para Escuchar.

Tsunamis y terremotos - Hablando con Científicos - Cienciaes.com
La Tierra es un planeta vivo y tranquilo que, a veces, despierta violentamente de su letargo, como si quisiera recordarnos lo frágiles que somos. Hoy les invitamos a escuchar una entrevista sobre esos bruscos despertares en forma de terremotos y tsunamis. Hablamos con Elisa Buforn Peiró, catedrática de Física de la Tierra en la Universidad Complutense de Madrid.
Elisa Buforn ha investigado la física que gobierna el comportamiento de la tierra justo en el lugar en el que se produce el terremoto, el foco sísmico, y ha desarrollado un conjunto de algoritmos que permiten estudiar el comportamiento de los terremotos a distancias regionales. Sus aportaciones han servido para obtener un mayor conocimiento de las características sísmicas y tectónicas de la región Sur de España y Norte de áfrica, y se han aplicado también a zonas americanas como Perú, Bolivia y El Salvador.
Las palabras de la profesora Buforn nos invitan a aprender de estos fenómenos naturales. Como complemento al programa, les invitamos a leer el siguiente reportaje:
LOS COLETAZOS DE UN GRAN TSUNAMI.
Existen muchas imágenes de la potencia destructora de un tsunami o de un terremoto. Sus devastadores efectos nos hacen estremecer pero su historia no acaba ahí, las secuelas de la catástrofe perduran en el tiempo y se reflejan en muchos aspectos que provocan daños colaterales que conviene estudiar.
El 11 de marzo de 2011, Japón sufrió el azote de un seísmo de gran potencia seguido de un tsunami devastador. La destrucción no sólo se llevó por delante vidas humanas y construcciones costeras, sino que creó una cantidad de desechos que se estima en 25 millones de toneladas, muchos de los cuales fueron arrastrados al océano. Los satélites artificiales fotografiaron la región y descubrieron enormes cantidades de restos de construcciones, barcos y objetos domésticos que flotaban a lo largo de la costa japonesa. Desde entonces, todos aquellos desechos han sido arrastrados por las olas, el viento y las corrientes oceánicas dispersándolos por todo el Pacífico.
Cualquier desecho flotante es potencialmente peligroso en el mar, los de mayor tamaño, bloques de construcción, contenedores portuarios o vehículos, por ejemplo, son peligrosos para la navegación, las sustancias químicas toxicas que transportan algunos contenedores arrastrados por las aguas, los combustibles de vehículos y barcos o las fugas radiactivas de la central nuclear de Fukushima, amenazan a la vida marina y contaminan las playas, pero incluso las pequeñas bolsas de plástico pueden ser ingeridas por los animales marinos provocándoles la muerte. A la catástrofe siguió un mar de contaminación que todavía perdura.
Conocedores de los peligros, un grupo de investigadores de la Universidad de Hawaii, intenta hacer un seguimiento de todos estos desechos para prevenir otras catástrofes quizás no tan espectaculares pero no menos importantes. Para ello han elaborado programas de ordenador capaces de modelar el movimiento de los residuos del gran tsunami de Japón.
Los vientos y corrientes marinas han hecho un gran trabajo con todos los restos de la catástrofe. En un principio los desechos formaban enormes aglomeraciones tan inmensas que eran visibles desde los satélites de observación de la Tierra. Ahora toda esa contaminación se ha ido separando y dispersando por una zona cada vez mayor separada en trozos más pequeños que ahora es imposible ver desde los satélites. Los barcos que navegan por el Pacífico conocen bien el problema. En el mes de septiembre, un barco ruso que navegaba cerca del Atolón de Midway, a 4.000 kilómetros del lugar del desastre, se encontró con los restos de un barco de pesca japonés, un frigorífico, un televisor y otros electrodomésticos. En diciembre, otros restos fueron recogidos en Vancouver, Canadá.
La enorme cantidad de toneladas de desechos vagan ahora por el Pacífico y los científicos intentan detectar los peligros que representan para las comunicaciones marina y para la vida oceánica, los bloques grandes pueden dañar los arrecifes de coral y los restos pequeños son un peligro para los animales marinos como los albatros, las focas o las tortugas.
Nancy Wallace, directora del Marine Debris Program de la NOAA ha declarado a Scientific American que su organización se están preparando para el peor de los escenarios porque todas esas miles de toneladas de desechos producidos por el Tsunami están en algún lugar del océano. En el mapa adjunto se muestra el camino seguido por los desechos en su dispersión por todo el Océano Pacifico.

It's the 41st Anniversary of Our Shameful, Deadly and Costly War on Drugs. Can We Call a Cease-Fire?


by Mark Perry.

Almost half of all U.S. inmates in federal prisons are serving time in cages for drug offenses.

 


This Sunday will mark the 41st anniversary of President Richard Nixon's declaration of America's War on Drugs Peaceful Americans Who Voluntarily Choose To Use Intoxicants Not Approved of by the Government, Who Will Put Users in Cages if Caught. On June 17, 1971 Richard Nixon delivered a"Special Message to the Congress on Drug Abuse Prevention and Control," where he appealed to Congress to give the highest priority to provide funding and authority to the federal government to "destroy the market for drugs," with "increased enforcement and vigorous application of the fullest penalties provided by law" and to "render the narcotics trade unprofitable."

Specifically, Nixon asked Congress to "authorize and fund 325 additional positions within the Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs to increase their capacity for apprehending those engaged in narcotics trafficking here and abroad and to investigate domestic industrial producers of drugs." 

In addition, Nixon asked Congress to provide $45 million in funding for America's new war ($255 million in today's dollars) "to enable the Bureau of Customs to develop the technical capacity to deal with smuggling by air and sea, to increase the investigative staff charged with pursuit and apprehension of smugglers, and to increase inspection personnel who search persons, baggage, and cargo entering the country. Funding of $7.5 million would permit the IRS to intensify investigation of persons involved in large-scale narcotics trafficking."

"These steps would strengthen our efforts to root out the cancerous growth of narcotics addiction in America. It is impossible to say that the enforcement legislation I have asked for here will be conclusive--that we will not need further legislation. We cannot fully know at this time what further steps will be necessary. As those steps define themselves, we will be prepared to seek further legislation to take any action and every action necessary to wipe out the menace of drug addiction in America. But domestic enforcement alone cannot do the job. If we are to stop the flow of narcotics into the lifeblood of this country, I believe we must stop it at the source."

Nixon concluded his special message with this prediction: "The final issue is not whether we will conquer drug abuse, but how soon. Part of this answer lies with the Congress now and the speed with which it moves to support the struggle against drug abuse."

MP: It's been 41 years since Nixon declared a "War on Drugs," and we know now that it has been a failed mission.  We haven't conquered drug abuse with an expensive, 41-year "War on Drugs," just like Prohibition didn't conquer alcohol abuse.  What the War has done is dramatically increase the number of Americans jailed for drug offenses, as the chart above shows.  As of the end of May, almost half (48.2%) of all inmates in federal prisons are serving time for drug offenses.   We've also exported our "War on Drugs" to other countries like Mexico, which has resulted in 55,000 drug-related murders there, almost as many war casualties as the U.S. experienced during the Vietnam War.  

And even though we Americans take great pride in our +200-year history of "economic and political freedom," we should be ashamed of our War on Drugs, and our status as the "World's Number One Jailer," part of which is the result of our drug war.  According to the International Center for Prison Studies, the United States leads the world with an incarceration rate of 730 prisoners per 100,000 population, see table below and full list here. By comparison, Canada's incarceration rate is 117 per 100,000 population,  Germany's rate is 83, and Japan's rate is 53.

Here's one comparison: How does the U.S., which ranks No. 10 in the world for economic freedom, compare to the ten least economically free countries in the world (according to the Heritage Foundation's 2012 Index of Economic Freedom), for incarceration rates?  The table below shows that comparison.  It should be embarrassing that none of the ten most economically repressed countries in the world have incarceration rates anywhere close to the United States, except maybe Cuba with 510 prisoners per 100,000 population.  So as much as we think of America as the "land of the free and the home of the brave," and despite our high ranking for economic freedom, our record of putting people in cages for using intoxicants not approved of by the government tarnishes America's great legacy of freedom.     


Isn't it time to call a truce or cease-fire on our shameful, deadly, expensive and failed War on Drugs?   
CountryEconomic Freedom
Rank
Prison Population
Rank
Prison Population
per 100,000
United States101730
Turkmenistan16859224
Timor Leste16921920
Equatorial Guinea17020639
Iran17129333
Congo17221333
Burma173124120
Venezuela174149149
Libya17519845
Cuba1767510
Zimbabwe177124121