Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta Robert Higgs. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta Robert Higgs. Mostrar todas las entradas

World War II: Still Being Touted as the Quintessential Keynesian Miracle by Robert Higgs

Someone must have imagined that my hopes for improved economic understanding might be excessively optimistic today and thus needed to be curbed to restore my normal emotional balance, because that person undertook to smash any such hopes to dust by e-mailing me a link to a HuffingtonPost article by Paul Abrams, “Economically, World War II Was Stimulus on Steroids.” This screed turns out to be an ostensible macroeconomics lesson composed in equal measure of economic foolishness, historical ignorance, and ideological tendentiousness – the veritable epitome of a worse-than-worthless contribution to public enlightenment.
The opening paragraphs indicate the direction of Abrams’s argument:
The next time someone argues that the New Deal failed, and only the Second World War ended the Depression, as ‘proof’ that government spending does not work, one can respond with the details of economic growth and unemployment reduction up to 1940, or one can ignore the claim and thank them for making your case for massive government spending in a deep, broad recession.
Right wing politicians are loathe to credit the New Deal with any success in hoisting the United States out of the Great Depression, but credit World War II for that achievement, believing that that somehow disproves Keynesian economic theory.
That claim, however, undermines their entire premise.
Abrams concludes that “massive government spending at a time of severe economic downturn and dislocation can indeed get an economy humming again,” as World War II shows; the New Deal was merely too timid. He seems unaware that his argument merely restates the fallacy-ridden hodge-podge of conventional wisdom about how World War II “got the economy out of the Depression” that has dominated the thinking of economists, historians, and the public ever since the war itself.
When I began to teach U.S. economic history at the University of Washington in the late 1960s, I quickly realized that this tale of the wartime “Keynesian miracle” could not withstand critical scrutiny once one went beyond the barest account of it in terms of the elementary Keynesian model and the standard government macro measures, such as GDP, the consumer price index, and the rate of civilian unemployment. Almost immediately I saw that unemployment had disappeared during the war not because of the beautiful workings of a Keynesian multiplier, but entirely because about 20 percent of the labor force was forced, directly or indirectly, into the armed forces and a comparable number of employees set to work in factories, shipyards, and other facilities turning out war-related ”goods” the government purchased only after forcing the  public to pay for them sooner (via wartime taxes and inflation) or later (via repayment of wartime borrowing). Thus, the great wartime “boom” consisted entirely of (1) some people’s mass engagement in wreaking death and destruction and (2) other people’s employment in producing supplies for these warriors after the government’s military labor drain, turning out ”goods” never valued by consumers or private producers in voluntary transactions, but rather ordered by government functionaries and priced completely arbitrarily in a command-and-control economy. In no sense was the alleged ”wartime prosperity” comparable to real, normal prosperity. The pervasive regimentation, rationing, price controls, direct government resource allocations, and forbidden forms of production (e.g., civilian automobiles) should have served as a tip-off.
After teaching my own students along these lines for many years, I eventually began to write articles and books pulling together my various studies. The most coherent of these books is my Depression, War, and Cold War, published originally by Oxford University Press in 2006. For all of the good I’ve done in correcting people’s understanding of what happened to the U.S. economy during World War and what lessons one might justifiably draw from that experience about, say, the scientific validity of the Keynesian model or its related fiscal-policy implications,  I might just as well have held my breath and turned blue. Here we are in June 2011, and millions of Americans are being presented with the purest potion of economic misinformation one can imagine, an account in no way superior to those the young Keynesians were peddling so confidently in 1944, when I was born. Perhaps my mother ought to have strangled me in my crib, to spare me the bitter disappointment of seeing the research and writing I’ve carried out over more than forty years prove to have been completely in vain.
For the Paul Abrams’s of this world, of course, none of this makes the slightest difference. They are at pains not to understand how the economy actually works or to endorse policies that promote its greater productivity, but only to concoct a plausible rationale for the government’s taxing “the rich” more heavily and spending oodles of money on a laundry list of leftist idols — government “infrastructure,” green energy-conservation programs, high-speed rail, and the rest of the wasteful and economically foolish purposes that progressive politicians espouse to feather their own nests and enrich their cronies and political dependents at public expense. If they haven’t learned any sound economics by this time, chances are slim to none that they will ever learn any, but I cannot believe that they care about such learning, in any event. Politics is the name, plunder’s the game.
There’s a lesson here, besides the obvious one that public discourse consists overwhelmingly of ideological sound and fury, signifying nothing solidly connected to reality. For me, the main lesson is: mommas, don’t let your babies grow up to become economic historians. If you do, you only put them in line to have their hearts broken.

Killing a Man Does Not Testify to National Greatness By Robert Higgs

Totalmente de acuerdo con Robert Higgs.

Artículo en español.


Killing a Man Does Not Testify to National Greatness By Robert Higgs.
First, I dislike the whole idea of “the greatness of our country.” Countries cannot be great. They are abstractions and, as such, they are incapable of acting for good or for evil. Individual residents of a country may be great, and many Americans are great, because, to borrow Forrest Gump’s construction, “greatness is as greatness does.”
The caretakers who comfort the sick and dying are often great. The priests and friends who revive the will to live in those who have lost hope are great. The entrepreneurs who establish successful businesses that better satisfy consumer demands for faster communication, safer travel, fresher food, and countless other goods and services are great. The scientists and inventors who peer deeper into the nature of the universe and devise technologies to accomplish humane, heretofore impossible feats are great. The artists who elevate the souls of those who hear their music and view their paintings are great.

But mere killing is never great, and those who carry out the killings are not great, either. No matter how much one may believe that people must sometimes commit homicide in defense of themselves and the defenseless, the killing itself is always to be deeply regretted. To take delight in killings, as so many Americans seem to have done in the past day or so, marks a person as a savage at heart. Human beings have the capacity to be better than savages. Oh that more of them would employ that capacity.
Second, anyone can see that the U.S. government will use this particular killing as evidence of its dedication to and capacity for carrying out the noble service of protecting–and, failing that, avenging the deaths of–the American people. (Never mind that trillions of dollars, tens of thousands of deaths, untold destruction of property, vast human misery, and sacrifices of essential liberties in this country went into gaining the proudly proclaimed achievement of killing a single man.) The process has already begun, with former presidents and the mainstream media adding their voices to amplify the government’s official line. Glory to the USA, glory to its hired killers, glory above all to its heroic Great Leader. The whole spectacle is profoundly disgusting. Yet we can see that many Americans have enthusiastically fallen for this trick, dancing in the streets in celebration of a man’s death in faraway Pakistan. Such unseemly behavior is not the stuff of which true greatness is made.

Can the Dead (Capitalism) Be Brought Back to Life? by Robert Higgs‏

I pose this question seriously, not as a physiologist, but as an economic historian. I am provoked to raise the question by an advertisement that Amazon sent me recently, calling my attention a book titled Can Capitalism Survive? Creative Destruction and the Future of the Global Economy. Seeing this sales pitch, my immediate reaction was my usual sadly amused reply to such a question: Can capitalism survive? What an odd question! Assuming that capitalism ever existed at all, it has been dead for at least a century.

At first glance, I did not recognize that the book being advertised is one for which, in a sense, I am responsible. It turns out that the “new” book is only an old (portion of a) book, now adorned by a new subtitle and two new introductory paragraphs by the Newsweek columnist Robert J. Samuelson. If I reveal that the book’s author is Joseph A. Schumpeter, many readers will recognize it immediately as Part II of that famous economist’s best-known work Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, first published in 1942, with subsequent editions in 1947 and 1950.

The new book’s front cover has a blurb from Fortune that declares Schumpeter to have been “the most influential economist of the twentieth century . . . a major prophet.” The back cover has an embarrassingly superficial blurb by publisher Steve Forbes that, among other things, describes Schumpeter as “the twentieth century’s foremost economist.”

I do not consider Schumpeter entitled to be called the most influential economist of the past century―that distinction unfortunately belongs to John Maynard Keynes, and Milton Friedman surely deserves the second place. As for Schumpeter’s rank as a prophet or as the intellectually foremost economist, I would place him below Ludwig von Mises and F. A. Hayek.

Nevertheless, Schumpeter was unquestionably one of the most important economists of his day, and his work has continued for good reason to attract readers ever since his death in 1950. His analysis of the historical dynamics of classic capitalism, which makes up Part II of Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy, though contestable on various grounds, may be, all in all, the best ever written, and it certainly remains among the most thought-provoking. (My own thoughts on Schumpeter’s analysis appear briefly in my book Crisis and Leviathan, pp. 239-44.)

In the mid-1970s, having read Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy repeatedly and having used it to good effect in my teaching, I sent a proposal to Harper & Row, the publisher. I proposed that Part II of the book be published as a separate work with an introduction by me. I asked for a reasonable royalty on sales of this proposed book. Harper & Row declined my offer. The publisher liked the idea of a stand-alone publication of Part II, with my introduction, but did not want to pay me a royalty. Not long afterward, in 1978, I was surprised to find in the bookstores the very volume I had proposed, with an introduction by Robert Lekachman, who evidently had been willing to work for less than I when he was approached by the publisher. Somewhat pushed out of shape by this pilfering of my idea, I wrote a letter to Harper & Row to let their managers know how unprofessional, at best, I considered their action to be. As I recall―although my memory is foggy in this regard―Harper then sent me a nominal “finder’s fee.”

(This episode, by the way, was but one of many that led me to propound Higgs’s Law of Publishing, which states: All publishers strive to maximize losses, but by virtue of sheer stupidity, some of them screw up so royally that they earn enough income to remain in business.)

Returning from the foregoing personal digression, what are we to make of the idea that capitalism might survive, indeed, of the idea that it has survived to date, when in fact it has scarcely ever existed and, even when prevailing economic conditions and institutions verged most closely on the capitalist model, sometime between the 1830s and World War I in the United States, they suffered a variety of government interventions and distortions that made the prevailing economic order, like nearly all such orders in reality, a form of “mixed economy”?

My friend Sheldon Richman has been on something of a crusade recently against the defense of capitalism by those who favor a free society, which of course includes a free-market economy. He prefers that defenders of freedom avoid the defense of something called capitalism because, first, the term derives in large part from enemies of the free society, such as the Marxists, and, second, because it has always served and continues to serve the enemies of a free society as a perennial object of misplaced responsibility, a (nonexistent) malefactor to be blamed for every economic problem the government’s countless interventions bring about.

Thus, most recently, by undertaking a series of decisive interventions stretching from the Fed‘s mismanagement of monetary policy, to Fannie and Freddie’s subsidies of unqualified home buyers, to the self-serving idiocies of Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, and Co., among other ill-fated actions, the government created the complex of interrelated disasters that includes the housing boom and bust, the financial debacle of 2008, and the economic recession since 2007. And who’s to blame? That’s right: capitalism. Which must then be “reformed” by mountains of additional government interventions laid atop the previously existing mountain, leaving, of course, Barney and Chris sitting pretty as the reformers, and the key troublemakers―the Fed, Fannie, and Freddie―smelling like roses, with the Fed being given even more power, and Fannie and Freddie being fed a diet of hundreds of billions of dollars in ongoing taxpayer-funded bailouts to continue doing the damage they do.

Perhaps, if we all frankly admitted that capitalism has been as dead as a dodo since 1914, if not even longer, then such factually absurd, ideologically inspired, politically tactical blame-casting would be precluded. It would make no more sense than blaming our economic troubles on the divine right of absolute monarchs, centuries after that doctrine has been abandoned. Perhaps.

So far, however, I have refrained from coming completely onboard Richman’s crusade ship. For many proponents of the free society, capitalism has always signified the ideal of the free-market society more than it has referred to any of its deeply compromised and distorted instantiations that have occurred historically. These people are understandably reluctant to give up still another cherished shibboleth to their enemies, as they previously surrendered their most positive and important ideological identity as liberals. So, even though I rarely use the term capitalism, and I strive to make as clear as I can the difference between the ideal free society (which I defend) and the realities of any existing or previously existing society (which I only study), for now, I decline to condemn those who continue to defend capitalism. They may be making a rhetorical mistake, as Richman insists, yet their hearts are in the right place. It will be easier to straighten out people’s rhetoric in due course than to bring about the change of heart that so many misguided people must experience, if even a shred of freedom is to be preserved.

*

My grounds for opposing “capitalism” are not those specified above. Negative references to capitalists predate Marx. For example, Thomas Hodgskin, a laissez faire advocate and mentor to Herbert Spencer, thought of capitalism as the existing system in which government openly favors capital at the expense of labor and consumers through controls, tariffs, subsidies, and the like. (The word certainly suggests that.) This was the common view among radical liberals throughout the nineteenth century. The American Benjamin Tucker, a self-described consistent Manchester man, regarded capitalism that way. But it’s not just semantics, the actual on-the-ground architects of the American system (e.g. Hamilton and Lincoln) favored heavy government assistance to business, a form of industrial policy and corporatism. Nock and Ekirch understood this completely. I see no grounds for associating capitalism with freed markets.

This is more than a rhetorical matter.

PS: I haven’t condemned anyone.

Sheldon Richman
Aug 16, 2010 (2 days ago)

*

Sheldon,

I apologize for mischaracterizing your grounds for your crusade against “capitalism,” and I am puzzled that I managed to misunderstand you so completely. You obviously know your motives better than I, so I am not arguing against them as such if I affirm that your crusade against something called capitalism would make more sense if it were based on the grounds I wrongly attributed to you.

I am well aware that Marx did not invent the term capitalism, but the present worldwide use and — for most intellectuals and secondhand dealers in ideas, the hostility toward — capitalism may be traced fairly directly to Marxists. People such as Hodgson and Tucker, in contrast, are virtually unknown outside the circle of intellectual historians and a small group of libertarians.

More important, the prevailing use of the term “capitalism” in intellectual and ideological writings and political struggles changed greatly in the twentieth century. In the nineteenth century, many writers, as you note, attacked “capitalism” because they identified it with a prevailing system that contained many government intrusions, often in favor of the “capitalists” of the day who had influence with the government. In the twentieth century, in contrast, intellectuals who wished to defend the free society, including free markets, came by and large to defend “capitalism.” Without explicitly pro-capitalist works such as Milton Friedman’s CAPITALISM AND FREEDOM and Ayn Rand and associates’ CAPITALISM: THE UNKNOWN IDEAL, we could probably count the number of contemporary libertarians on our fingers and toes.

Even the great Ludwig von Mises wrote a book titled THE ANTI-CAPITALIST MENTALITY to analyze this mentality and expose its fallacies.

I greatly fear that the main effect of any crusade against “capitalism” will be to cause pro-freedom people who encounter it to reject the crusaders immediately, given that the greatest enemies of the free society for the past century, especially the Communists, ceaselessly attacked capitalism, blamed it for every imaginable evil, and held out the prospect that by destroying it, we can create heaven on earth. I don’t believe in guilt by association; I simply insist that you won’t do the pro-freedom cause much good by sleeping in the same “anti-capitalist” bed as these well-known enemies of the free society.

People such as Mises and Friedman, who unashamedly endorsed capitalism, never defended the countless interventions that mark the existing (or previously existing) system, such as tariffs, subsidies, price controls, and so forth. For them, as for most people nowadays, capitalism and the free-market system are synonymous. It’s more important to get the substance right than to choose a particular word to denote the ideal system of political economy we seek to defend.

Of course — and I suspect this is your real grievance — many political actors and political commentators purport to defend capitalism while taking countless actions that actually undermine and tend to destroy the free society, and the free market in particular. Such hypocrisy is to be exposed and condemned; you are a great living example of how to do so tirelessly. However, we can’t get rid of political hypocrisy; politics and lying are as hand and glove. I don’t think, though, that this sort of grievance justifies a movement to attack capitalism. Again, we have a better chance of getting our message through if we simply attack the particular objectionable government action or program.

Robert Higgs
Aug 16, 2010 (2 days ago)